This NFL offseason, Emory Professor Mike Lewis has leveraged QB-centric data to predict 2022 season outcomes for all 32 NFL teams - creating the Team Win Forecast.
The Team Win Forecast is primarily driven by a new advanced QB metric called QB Wins. The QB Wins metric is something that Professor Lewis has been working on for a significant amount of time. The QB Wins metric is computed using a wide range of raw data (TD passes, interceptions, yards, etc.), expert statistics (passer rating, QBR), and non-QB data (defense stats, rushing, etc.). The algorithm leverages the correlations and differences between these data sources to separate out QB, running game, and defensive performance. A second statistical analysis estimates the relationship between quarterback performance factors (and defensive and rushing factors) and team performance (wins). The result is a QB metric that identifies how much a player contributes to his team's record in a given year.
Professor Lewis forecasts each team’s 2022 record using the QB Wins metric, with particular attention paid to changes in the QB position. He also considered and ranked the QB-oriented storylines likely to dominate each team’s media coverage this season.
The preview is intentionally QB centric. These players disproportionately drive on-field success, fan interest, and salary cap issues. The NFL is the dominant sports league across just about every demographic group, and the QBs are the stars. Check out each division's data-driven projections or check out the full PDF document at the links below.
Stream the podcast discussion of the projections on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.
We'll be comparing Mike's projections to those of ESPN and NFL.com throughout the season. See how they differ in this table: